According to @AltcoinGordon, Polymarket assigns only an 11% probability that the proposed 100% China tariff will go through, signaling a low market-implied risk for that policy outcome (source: @AltcoinGordon citing Polymarket odds). The author also notes that prior market panic tied to the tariff headline may have been overstated, given the prediction market pricing (source: @AltcoinGordon). For traders, tracking this Polymarket probability as a real-time gauge of policy risk can inform positioning and hedging in high-beta crypto assets such as BTC and ETH during tariff-related headlines (source: @AltcoinGordon citing Polymarket odds).